While the gold price rose 2.1% yesterday and is now close to an all-time high, the Bitcoin price is staging a new attempt today to break through the $28,8000 to $29,000 resistance area that has been in place since mid-March. The latest macroeconomic data and a gold price that continues to thrive may provide the impetus needed to break out of the current consolidation phase.
At $2,042 per ounce, gold is just a few dollars away from its 2020 record high of $2,069.40. The traditional safe haven asset is up 13% over the past month, while Bitcoin gained 27% over the past 30 days. Thus, both assets have risen in tandem (Bitcoin with a higher beta) in recent weeks.
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) April 4, 2023
Is Bitcoin Finally Proving To Be Digital Gold?
The recent rally in gold prices is due to a weaker US dollar, lower expectations for key interest rates and geopolitical tensions, according to analysts at The Kobeissi Letter. In addition, there are growing concerns about the looming threat of a recession in the United States later this year.
In recent years, the inverse correlation of gold and the US dollar has been clearly evident. And it is the same now. In recent weeks, the US dollar has come under significant pressure. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Brazil are trading with China in Chinese yuan rather than in USD. This has put pressure on the dollar and thus supported the gold price.
Meanwhile, in the US, the Federal Reserve is still facing a regional banking crisis that is far from resolved. This crisis resulted in nearly $400 billion being pulled out of American banks in just four weeks, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter.
Investors are seemingly looking to safe haven assets such as Bitcoin and gold as the weaknesses of the banking system have become apparent. And yesterday’s macro data continues to play into the hands of both.
Weaker-than-expected factory orders in February and an unexpected drop in job openings to 9.931 million versus expectations of 10.5 million (down from 10.824 million the previous month) are the first signs that the Fed’s tightening policy is having an impact on the labor market and, by extension, the economy.
Fewer jobs on offer point more clearly than before to a cooling economy, reducing the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
This led markets yesterday to once again reinforce their expectation that the Fed will soon end rate hikes and start cutting rates later this year, triggering the uptrend in Bitcoin and gold. Analyst Joe Consorti wrote via Twitter:
There it is. Fed funds futures are pricing in a less than 50% chance that the Fed hikes 25 bps at the May meeting. Bad ISM data, crude demand falling, labor demand falling, rates repricing down fast – the market smells the slowdown. Pause
At press time, the Bitcoin price rose to $28,545 in the wake of the macro conditions. After the recent spike, the zone between $28,450 and $28,500 needs to be defended by the bulls. If this area acts as support in case of a retest, a rally towards $30,000 could be in the cards.
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